CS2 Case Odds and Expected Value

What every case actually drops, what those drops are worth right now, and how much you lose per opening on average.

Opening a case costs the case price plus a key of $2.49. All figures are gross expected value at the cheapest current listings, before marketplace selling fees.

Before you open anything

Opening cases is gambling and the odds are against you: every case below returns less than it costs to open. This page is an information tool, not a game, and it is intended for adults. Nothing here is financial advice and no single outcome can be predicted.

Which case is worth opening

Ranked by expected return: the share of your opening cost you get back in item value on average. Higher is better, and nothing here reaches 100%.

#	Case	Case price	Cost to open	Expected value	Return	Items
1	eSports 2013 Winter Case	$9.45	$11.94	$7.37	61.7%	77
2	CS:GO Weapon Case 3	$11.13	$13.62	$7.87	57.8%	77
3	Operation Vanguard Weapon Case	$3.89	$6.38	$3.42	53.7%	79
4	Gamma Case	$2.43	$4.92	$2.58	52.5%	67
5	Gamma 2 Case	$2.44	$4.93	$2.51	50.9%	67
6	CS:GO Weapon Case 2	$17.20	$19.69	$9.94	50.5%	77
7	Glove Case	$8.71	$11.20	$5.65	50.4%	41
8	Sealed Dead Hand Terminal	$0.23	$2.72	$1.36	50.0%	39
9	Operation Wildfire Case	$2.35	$4.84	$2.40	49.6%	29
10	Operation Hydra Case	$23.80	$26.29	$12.91	49.1%	41
11	Chroma 2 Case	$3.10	$5.59	$2.72	48.6%	75
12	Prisma Case	$0.93	$3.42	$1.63	47.7%	69
13	Shadow Case	$1.27	$3.76	$1.74	46.3%	29
14	Horizon Case	$1.30	$3.79	$1.74	45.8%	69
15	Chroma 3 Case	$2.78	$5.27	$2.39	45.4%	77
16	Operation Phoenix Weapon Case	$3.02	$5.51	$2.49	45.2%	78
17	eSports 2014 Summer Case	$9.85	$12.34	$5.56	45.0%	82
18	Chroma Case	$4.13	$6.62	$2.98	44.9%	74
19	Operation Breakout Weapon Case	$6.47	$8.96	$4.02	44.9%	27
20	Revolver Case	$2.31	$4.80	$2.15	44.8%	82
21	Shattered Web Case	$3.37	$5.86	$2.62	44.7%	69
22	Operation Broken Fang Case	$4.66	$7.15	$3.15	44.1%	41
23	Spectrum Case	$2.97	$5.46	$2.41	44.1%	77
24	Spectrum 2 Case	$2.45	$4.94	$2.14	43.3%	77
25	Prisma 2 Case	$0.88	$3.37	$1.43	42.3%	69
26	Huntsman Weapon Case	$6.54	$9.03	$3.79	42.0%	28
27	Falchion Case	$1.33	$3.82	$1.60	41.9%	29
28	Winter Offensive Weapon Case	$8.33	$10.82	$4.50	41.6%	78
29	Operation Riptide Case	$6.49	$8.98	$3.68	41.0%	67
30	Snakebite Case	$0.25	$2.74	$1.05	38.4%	41
31	Gallery Case	$0.52	$3.01	$1.13	37.7%	30
32	Dreams & Nightmares Case	$0.80	$3.29	$1.24	37.6%	67
33	CS20 Case	$0.69	$3.18	$1.18	37.0%	30
34	Danger Zone Case	$0.87	$3.36	$1.22	36.4%	69
35	Fever Case	$0.53	$3.02	$0.98	32.4%	69
36	Recoil Case	$0.18	$2.67	$0.77	28.9%	41
37	Sealed Genesis Terminal	$0.03	$2.52	$0.72	28.7%	17
38	CS:GO Weapon Case	$97.22	$99.71	$28.63	28.7%	74
39	Operation Bravo Case	$48.78	$51.27	$14.69	28.7%	80
40	Clutch Case	$0.34	$2.83	$0.78	27.6%	41
41	eSports 2013 Case	$38.71	$41.20	$11.05	26.8%	74
42	Fracture Case	$0.34	$2.83	$0.75	26.4%	69
43	Revolution Case	$0.13	$2.62	$0.67	25.7%	41
44	Kilowatt Case	$0.08	$2.57	$0.63	24.5%	30

Odds for eSports 2013 Winter Case

Case

Cost to open

$11.94

House edge

38.3%

Price coverage

100.0%

Buy eSports 2013 Winter Case CSMoney

Rarity	Chance	Per item	Items	Share of EV
Mil-Spec	79.92%	13.3200%	6	40.9%
Restricted	15.98%	7.9900%	2	23.8%
Classified	3.20%	1.0667%	3	18.3%
Covert	0.64%	0.6400%	1	6.9%
Knives and gloves	0.26%	0.0040%	65	10.0%

Share of the possible wear outcomes we could price. Lower coverage means the estimate leans on fewer listings.

Try the odds yourself

One opening, simulated with the same odds and prices as the table above. It is not a game: no account, no balance, nothing to buy or win, and no outcome is saved.

Simulate many openings

Run a batch with the same odds and prices. Across enough openings the result converges on the house edge, which is what the numbers above predict.

Openings

How the numbers work

Published drop odds

Valve publishes fixed drop chances per rarity: 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.20% Classified, 0.64% Covert and 0.26% for knives and gloves. Every item inside a rarity shares that chance equally.

Wear and StatTrak

Each item is valued across the wear distribution its float range allows, using the cheapest live listing for that exact wear. Weapons then get the 10% StatTrak chance blended in, because StatTrak sells for more.

What opening costs

Expected value is measured against the case price plus a key, not the case price alone. That is why cheap cases score worst: the key dominates the cost.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of getting a knife from a CS2 case?

0.26%, or roughly 1 in 385 openings. Knives and gloves share that single roll, so one specific knife finish is far rarer than 0.26%. There is no pity system: every opening is independent of the last.

Is it profitable to open CS2 cases?

No. Every case on this page returns less than it costs to open, which is how the system is designed. No case has an expected return above 100%, so across many openings you lose money on average.

Why do cheap cases have the worst return?

Because a key costs the same whatever the case costs. On a case that sells for a few cents the key is almost the whole cost, so the low-value items you mostly receive cannot cover it.

How is the expected value calculated?

Each item's published drop chance is multiplied by its expected value across the wear distribution its float range allows, using the cheapest live listing per wear, with the 10% StatTrak chance blended in. The total is compared against the case price plus a key.

Does the simulator use the real odds?

Yes. It calls the same calculation as the rest of the page, so its drop rates and values cannot drift from what is published above. No outcome is recorded, stored or shared.